A pick-up in new housing construction in Australia is at least a year off, according to forecasts by BIS Shrapnel.

The economic and building research firm is forecasting 1.4% year-on-year growth in new private dwellings in the current 2012-13 financial year, but then a big jump of 10.6% growth in the 2013-14 financial year.

The main beneficiaries of the pick-up are expected be Queensland, WA and NSW – with the first two benefiting from both a historical shortfall in housing construction relative to demand as well as the flow-on impact of overseas and interstate jobseekers taking up jobs tied to the mining boom. This is a new trend, contrasting with new immigrants previously heading to Melbourne or Sydney.

Queensland new dwelling commencements will pick up by 10% in 2012/13 and then by 30% in 2013/14.

However Victorian dwelling commencements are expected to fall 14% in 2012/13 and then by a further 9% in 2013/14 due to ‘overbuilding in the short term” with BIS Shrapnel figures showing the state built around 49,000 new dwelling per year against demand of just 38,000.